THE GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE

THE GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE
Here is how I am structuring my views.

1. Is global warming factually established?

Probably. The issue is whether the warming observed is outside the boundaries of what has been observed in the past in the unending cycle of climate shifts.
World temperatures do change. Saskatchewan was once tropical, then a glacier, and now it is just dry.
I have been suspicious of the science since the main researchers have not released their underlying data to enable replication. Replication is essential in science.
The recent hack of e-mails from East Anglia University reveals that some of the researchers would consider deleting data rather than releasing it. That scientist even have that thought flit through their mind is deeply disturbing.
see http://eastangliaemails.com/.
An excellent article in The Economist of March 20 2010, with its clear description of the theory and the measurement has now convinced me that measurable climate warming is occurring. http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15719298

2. If it is, is it caused by human activity?

I can believe that human activity has some impact on climate. I can even believe that the belching of cows also has some impact. What I cannot believe is that the farts of dinosaurs caused the glaciers of Saskatchewan to melt. So what did? That remains an open question but both theory and measurement establish that increases in carbon dioxide produce warming and a major source of carbon dioxide is human activity.

3. If it is, what are the upside and downside consequences?

I have not seen any analysis as to whether the displacement of coastal inhabitants and coastal land loss is balanced by increased inhabitable and arable land in the northern hemisphere.

4. If the net is downside what options are available and what is the cost?

It seems all options have a high cost. So decisions should be based on a cost/benefit analysis. See:
http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Default.aspx?ID=1148 for the global warming consensus paper.
An executive summary can be downloaded to .pdf

5. Relative to the net downside costs where does this problem rank in the realm of world problems?

This is the bottom line.

I found the Monk debate which was aired on CBC Ideas useful to my thinking.
"Be it resolved that climate change is mankind's defining crisis, and demands a commensurate response."

George Monbiot and Elizabeth May for the pro side and Bjørn Lomborg and Lord Nigel Lawson for the contrary.
http://www.munkdebates.com/debates/
The discussion forum following is also useful,

A 16 minute video lecture by Bjorn Lomborg can be seen at:
http://www.ted.com/talks/bjorn_lomborg_sets_global_priorities.html
The video is short, clear, and places attempts to deal with climate change, while worthwhile, near the bottom of a clear list of problems to be dealt with.
This too is based on the conclusion of the researchers who participated in the Copenhagen Consensus.
http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Default.aspx?ID=1143 for
The ten challenges examined in Copenhagen Consensus 2008

My conclusion is that reasonably cost effective steps should be taken to reduce global warming but that such efforts should not detract from the more pressing global problems.


Here is the ranking of global problems from the Copenhagen Consensus.
1 Micronutrient supplements for children (vitamin A and zinc) Malnutrition
2 The Doha development agenda Trade
3 Micronutrient fortification (iron and salt iodization) Malnutrition
4 Expanded immunization coverage for children Diseases
5 Biofortification Malnutrition
6 Deworming and other nutrition programs at school Malnutrition and Education
7 Lowering the price of schooling Education
8 Increase and improve girl's schooling Women
9 Community-based nutrition promotion Malnutrition
10 Provide support for women's reproductive role Women
11 Heart attack acute management Diseases
12 Malaria prevention and treatment Diseases
13 Tuberculosis case finding and treatment Diseases
14 R&D in low-carbon energy technologies Global Warming
15 Bio-sand filters for household water treatment Water
[SOURCE:http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Projects/Copenhagen%20Consensus%202008/Outcome.aspx]
Image: http://www.arctic-warming.com/poze/pozaBb.jpg