Saturday, December 11, 2010

REGISTER LONG GUNS


December 11, 2010

Keep the long gun registry.

Randy Kamp, M.P. Kamp.R@parl.gc.ca> cc gc PM
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission

Dear Randy,

Exec. Summary
1. The issue is still open for decision
2. Keeping the long gun registry is the right decision.
3. Keeping the long gun registry is the politically adroit move.

Details.
1. The Conservative polling firm phoned today soliciting views on this issue. This tells me the conservatives are wisely continuing to evaluate their options. So should you as my representative.

2. Keeping the registry is the right decision.

2a. Guns are dangerous and the fewer we have in our society the better. The more messages in that direction that the government sends- the better. Many folks with guns they really have no need for will get rid of them rather than register. Good. Fewer guns fewer problems.

2b. The gun registry. A good idea but initially executed with the usual Liberal inept management of costs. Now that it is up and running the past costs are sunk costs. The marginal costs of keeping it operating are worth the benefits in public safety. I think primarily of domestic violence, gun accidents, and suicides. Harper is an economist. He is familiar with the idea of marginal cost. Remind him of the fact. More important is to stop referring to the dead and gone past sunk costs as if they have any relevance now. Emphasize how conservatives can run it efficiently and effectively

Now that it is up and running, surely the conservatives are good enough managers to set the fee and manage the costs so that it is a cash break even operation. In various parts of our country we can register dogs, cats, bicycles, cars, people [voters lists], etc. etc. It is just not believable that we cannot register guns on a break even basis.

2c. The only people supporting reducing the control on guns are the gun nuts and the farmers and hunters who are too lazy or cheap to register.

2d. The Canadian Police Association and the Chiefs of Police support the continuing registration. I support our chiefs of police. Do you? Yes there are some officers with the opposite view. Some officers are gun nuts. The chiefs are the ones with the best overall view.

2e. Remember that Al Capone was brought down not for his criminal gang acts but for his income tax non acts. Presently many individuals accused of criminal acts get away on technicalities having to do with evidence. Unregistered firearms are a case of easy evidence and easy conviction.

3. Keeping the long gun registry is the politically adroit move.
The conservatives should simply lay low, do nothing, and allow the issue to die down, leaving the registry to quietly and efficiently operate. Yes there will be some disgruntled members of the party but they will not defect as there is nowhere for them to go. They will not join other parties and they will continue to vote Conservative.
Meanwhile the moderate conservatives, those who in my mind have a degree of common sense, will stick by the party rather than give up in despair. I dismiss the rumors that the NRA is active in lobbying the Conservative party.

Finally Randy, and on a somewhat personal note, close your eyes in meditative prayer and imagine Jesus owning a gun.

Sincerely,
Daniel McDonald

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Conservatives, once a principled party


It was once a principled Conservative Party

To: Randy Kamp MP cc: Prime Minister Stephen Harper

With great sorrow I write of my disillusionment with respect to what I once believed to be a principled Conservative Party.

I think of recent issues
1. Long gun registry. I will use this as the classic example and present my detailed views later.
2. Long form census form.
3. Inhibiting open disclosure and discussion of research findings.

In themselves decisions on these matters are not significant in the grand scheme of things. They are extremely significant as examples of a mode of governing that chooses narrow ideology and/or weak unprincipled populism rather than principled leadership. Two characteristics are prominent; dismissing the advice of experts, and paucity of principled rationale.

Some details on the long gun registry.
Responsibility for public safety is acknowledged by those of all political persuasions except perhaps anarchists. I look to our police chiefs, the RCMP, the paramedics, the emergency room physicians for informed views on the long gun registry and find them unanimously in support. In contrast this is what I find in The National Post of September 18, 2010:
Mr. Harper predicted the “registry will someday be abolished” because it will continually be opposed by the people who understand it — who he identified as “rural Canadians, hunters, outdoors men and women [and] police officers.
“These people will never accept this registry because they know it is ineffective and wasteful. And the party I lead will not rest until the day it is abolished.”
So Mr. Harper believes that those most in the know do not understand it. Simply not plausible. I place my belief in the chiefs of police.

The bill to abolish the long gun registry is a private member’s bill. Traditionally MP’s are allowed a free vote on such bills and are not whipped, what an appropriate word, into submission by their political bosses. Neither Stephen Harper or Michael Ignatieff are allowing a free vote while Jack Layton distinguishes himself with a principled approach.

Politicians are repeatedly faced with the dilemma of leadership vs. popularism. How does Mr. Harper deal with this?

Mr. Harper said it will be “an important vote.”
“We encourage all members of Parliament to, obviously, vote on the right side of this issue, but particularly when members of Parliament have made commitments to their constituents.”
Reasonably clear if the member feels his constituents are against the registry and firmly believe the registry is a bad thing. But what if his constituents are for the registry and the member believes the chiefs of police. Both are irrelevant for Harper whips them into voting “his way or the highway”.

I like to believe that politicians have a degree of rationality. Consider the 3 main arguments against the registry.
1. High cost. The outrageous high cost of development, while factual are now irrelevant. Those are sunk costs as any graduate of economics 101 knows. The only relevant costs are the future net costs. Harper has already assured the civil service that there will be no reduction in head count. An efficient operation would levy a fee high enough to cover the operating cost.
2. Harper and others say that they “know it is ineffective”. They seldom identify what they regard as ineffective although sometimes “preventing crime” is cited as the objective of the registry, which is a straw man. The chiefs of police say it assists them in being more effective and operating with a higher degree of safety for the police. That is good enough for me but apparently not sufficient to overcome narrow doctrinaire viewpoints.
3. I am not competent to personally conduct research into complex matters and usually must rely on others who are more expert. The same applies to politicians. For the long gun registry I consider the chiefs of police more competent than politicians to evaluate what contributes to effective and efficient law enforcement. For the long form census form I consider the views of professional statisticians more relevant than my views. For the value of public dissemination of research findings I consider the views of researchers more valid than mine.
Now observe carefully that in all 3 examples the Conservative leadership and my MP consider their own doctrinaire position to be more valid than those who are more competent in the subject matter.

4. Most serious is that in all 3 examples I find no references to underlying principles. Since my Conservative politicians either have no principles or choose not disclose them, I reveal mine. I lean strongly in the direction of maximizing personal freedom and personal economic choice. Yes the long gun registry and the long form census report impinge on personal freedom but in my view do so in a minor way that is more than offset by my personal benefit and/or the benefit to society. To muzzle researchers is a clear violation of their personal freedom without any plausible rationale.

I close with a challenge.
Present the clear rationale for your position on all 3 issues.

If I do not find rationality in my politicians then they will not find any confidence or support from me.

As usual, I post on my blog and will post any replies there as well.

http://dlmblogmissn.blogspot.com/

Friday, May 21, 2010

FREE TRADE, AGRICULTURE, SUPPLY MANAGEMENT


FREE TRADE, AGRICULTURE, SUPPLY MANAGEMENT.
April 26, 2010

kamp.r@parl.gc.ca
randy@randykamp.com
marc.dalton.mla@leg.bc.ca
randy.hawes.mla@leg.bc.ca

Free trade and dialogue

Hi to my representatives,

2 themes. Free trade and dialogue between constituents and their representative.

First let me introduce myself. I lean heavily toward libertarianism, I believe in the maximum possible personal liberty, I believe in a minimum of government, I believe markets are more efficient and effective at setting prices and allocating resources than are bureaucrats and politicians. I believe in these values more strongly than does either our federal conservatives or our provincial liberals. I claim to be a better economist than Stephen Harper. You can check out my credentials at :
http://ca.linkedin.com/pub/dr-daniel-lumon-mcdonald/18/6a0/1a1

FREE TRADE
Everyone is in favor of free trade. Well not quite, everyone is in favor of "free trade except for x,y,z". I am in favor of free trade full stop.

A National Post editorial of April 16 highlighted the danger that our existing dairy and egg cartels [a.k.a. "supply management"] pose to freer trade.
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/story.html?id=2913133

At issue is the probability we are inadmissible to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.

They rightly say we will not gain admission unless we dismantle our agricultural cartels.

We are hypocrites. We angrily rail at the US on free trade in lumber and fail to acknowledge the timber in our own eye.

This is both a provincial and a federal issue.
I ask for a clear statement from each of you as to your party's stance AND your personal stance on free trade in general and on the agricultural cartels in particular.


[note: the remainder of the communication dealt with DIALOGUE AND TRANSPARENCY and was posted as a blog with title "BLOGS FOR POLITICIANS posted May 19, 2010"]

Sincerely
Daniel McDonald
NOTE: The replies will be posted as separate comments by Daniel. This will keep the thread of communication clear for each of the 3 representatives.
May 21 update note.
Replies from Randy Hawes and Marc Dalton have been posted by Daniel as comments.
No reply to date from Randy Kamp.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

AUDIT OF MP EXPENSES


Date:
Wed, 19 May 2010 21:55:22 -0700
From:
Dan McDonald
To:
"GC kamp.r@parl.gc.ca"

Subject:
Audit of MP expenses.


Dear Mr. Kamp,

I despair at my attempts to provide good, albeit, unsolicited advice to you.

Please come out strongly with your personal support for the Auditor General of Canada to conduct a value for money audit of MP expenses.

If possible, persuade the Conservative Party to do likewise.

If you or your party have good reasons to continue to balk at this idea then please send them to me and I will post them on my blog. Do not use the "we are already audited" lame excuse. That is a financial audit and what taxpayers want and deserve is a value for money audit.

This is simply a no win stance that slows you down in getting on with good government.

Act fast, the Liberals or the NDP will soon wake up and reverse their stance leaving the Conservatives as those with something to hide.

Sincerely,
Daniel McDonald
32502 Best Ave.
Mission B.C. V2V 2S6
d._mcdonald@telus.net 604.820.9310
http://dlmblogmissn.blogspot.com/

May 21
Boilerplate reply follows. I wonder if there will be any reply of substance.
Subject:
RE: losing faith
Date:
Fri, 21 May 2010 13:14:03 -0400
From:

To:

References:

Dear Mr. McDonald,

Thank you for taking the time to write to the office of Randy Kamp, Member of Parliament for Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission. I will pass your message and link along to Mr. Kamp so that he is aware of your views on this issue.

Sincerely,

Curtis Schoblocher
Parliamentary Assistant
Office of Randy Kamp, MP
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission

BLOGS FOR POLITICIANS




Sent: Monday, April 26, 2010 10:17 AM
To: kamp.r@parl.gc.ca; randy@randykamp.com; Dalton.MLA, Marc; Hawes.MLA, Randy
Subject: Free trade and dialogue

April 26, 2010

kamp.r@parl.gc.ca
randy@randykamp.com
marc.dalton.mla@leg.bc.ca
randy.hawes.mla@leg.bc.ca

Free trade and dialogue

Hi to my representatives,

2 themes. Free trade and dialogue between constituents and their representative.

First let me introduce myself. I lean heavily toward libertarianism, I believe in the maximum possible personal liberty, I believe in a minimum of government, I believe markets are more efficient and effective at setting prices and allocating resources than are bureaucrats and politicians. I believe in these values more strongly than does either our federal conservatives or our provincial liberals. I claim to be a better economist than Stephen Harper. You can check out my credentials at :
http://ca.linkedin.com/pub/dr-daniel-lumon-mcdonald/18/6a0/1a1

FREE TRADE [FOR BLOG THIS SECTION IN A SEPARATE BLOG "CONSERVATIVES ON FREE TRADE #2

DIALOGUE AND TRANSPARENCY

This request for response/dialogue leads to my second theme. I do admire the 3 of you for devoting yourself to public service. Both Randy's have corresponded with me and I appreciate that.
You cannot possible spend the time and effort preparing thoughtful responses to all of the issues that are thrown at you.

Take a load off your feet and embrace technology.

I have check all 3 of your web sites looking for the adoption of technology to improve your effectiveness and efficiency.

Blogs are easy to use for both the blogger and those who comment and interact. They can be tremendously effective as a demonstration of transparency and dialogue in action.

Randy Kamp, web site has riding news but no blog. No aspect of site for meaningful dialogue.

Randy Hawes, web site does have reference to the caucus tweets. Tweets are for twerps, too short for meaningful dialogue. No blog for Randy himself.

Marc Dalton web site. No reference to any blog or to any use of technology.

Conclusion none of you three are making effective use of technology to engage with your constituents.

For example, if you had a blog, and wanted to dialogue with me on my free trade issue then you simply copy and paste my e-mail into your blog and then prepare your response. If/when you get similar letters or questions you simply say "been there, done that see my blog of [date]"

There is more than effectiveness and efficiency involved. Governments, legislators, and politicians are not held in particularly high regard these days. Part of it is the lack of transparency.

I realize that you are in the difficult position of having to both represent your constituents and at the same time provide leadership.

On the transparency issue, you may or may not reply to my free trade issue. If you do, you may take the contrary position when you respond to others or when you participate in caucus discussions. If you believe in transparency and straightforwardness you put your position in writing – on your blog. Yes conditions change, yes your position may change, and a blog entry can explain the reason for the change.

Transparency is like free trade; everyone is in favor of "transparency". No quite. Everyone is in favor of "transparency except for x,y,z…"

The cynic in me says that if you air the idea of having your own blog to be candid with your constituents and the public, that the powers that be within your party will advise you not to do it. This applies particularly to you Randy Kamp as Harper has the reputation of not wanting individuals to be open and candid. You will likely accept their view.

I want to end on a positive note.
I am willing and able to spend some time with each of you or your office manager to get a blog set up for you. One of your children or grandchildren could probably do it faster and better and your web master could do it with more style and class, but I will put in the time if you ask.

Sincerely
Daniel McDonald

PS: This 77 year old created and maintains a blog. Might even put this missive on the blog along with your response. If you do not want your response to be posted, then say so now.
http://dlmblogmissn.blogspot.com/

CONSERVATIVES ON FREE TRADE #1

Sent: April 30, 2010 11:46 PM
To: Trost, Bradley - M.P.
Subject: Question re free trade

April 30, 2010

Question re free trade

Trost.B@parl.gc.ca

Dear Mr. Trost,

I read with great interest your "Free Trade for Columbia" in today's
Financial Post.
http://www.financialpost.com/opinion/story.html?id=2968336

Of course everyone is for free trade. Well not quite. Everyone is for
"free trade except for X,Y,Z..."

I'm more of a conservative than your party so naturally I agree with
your stance and with your article.

BUT, one thing puzzles me.
You say
"Free trade in agriculture will also allow the poor and other consumers
to purchase foodstuffs at lower prices because tariffs on Canadian
wheat, barley, lentils, peas and other crops will disappear. Thousands
of small Colombian bakeries will now have the option to buy Canadian
flour at the lowest possible price, making food more affordable for
all."

I was under the impression that your party was for ""free trade except
for X,Y,and agricultural products...".

Please clarify for me exactly what your party's policy is with respect
to trade in agricultural products.

Thanks for your attention,
Daniel McDonald

NOTE BELOW THE FOLLOW UP. THE LESSON IS THAT ON THIS SUBJECTS OUR PARLIAMENTARIANS ARE UNWILLING TO BE STRAIGHTFORWARD.
Subject:
RE: Question re free trade
Date:
Thu, 6 May 2010 15:58:52 -0400
From:


Dear Mr. McDonald,

Thank you for your e-mail message. Your comments concerning Mr. Trost's OpEd in the Financial Post have been forwarded to his attention.

Due to the high volume of correspondence received, only constituents of Saskatoon-Humboldt will receive a further response.

Sincerely,

Vikki Ruby
Assistant to Brad Trost, MP
Saskatoon--Humboldt
113 Justice Building
House of Commons
Ottawa, ON K1A 0A6

May 19, 2010

request reference conservative policy

Trost.B@parl.gc.ca

Dear Mr. Trost,

Your assistant, Vikki Ruby, has indicated that you will not respond further to my query regarding the conservative stance on free trade.

I feel disappointed.

Here I am doing my best to promote the Conservative Party, even to the extent of posting on my blog. You are frequently quoted in the press as being an MP well informed and an advocate of free trade.

My simple query was:
"Please clarify for me exactly what your party's policy is with respect to trade in agricultural products."

Surely the Conservatives have a policy and it would be easy for you to direct me to it.
I have tried the Conservative web site
http://www.conservative.ca/
It is not very helpful. Without a search capability I cannot find any reference to trade policy.

As is my policy I post my searches for information on my blog, along with the responses.
http://dlmblogmissn.blogspot.com/
Regards,
Daniel McDonald

http://dlmblogmissn.blogspot.com/

Subject:
FW: request reference conservative policy
Date:
Fri, 4 Jun 2010 14:18:43 -0400
From:

CC:

Dear Mr. McDonald,

Thank you for your e-mail message. Due to the high volume of correspondance received, Mr. Trost must direct his attention to addressing the inquiries and concerns of his constituents.

However, we have forwarded your email to your Member of Parliament, Randy Kamp, for his consideration and response.

Sincerely,

Vikki Ruby
Assistant to Brad Trost, MP
Saskatoon--Humboldt
House of Commons
Ottawa, ON K1A 0A6

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

FEDS FLUB FESTIVE FUNDING



Feds flub festive funding while fiddling at the fringes of the problem.

The Federal Conservative government is facing widespread criticism for not providing any contribution to Toronto's Pride Week. This has engendered charges of homophobia against the Conservatives and provided another opportunity for the Liberals to heckle their ineptitude.

Had the Conservatives conformed to conservative principles they could have confirmed themselves as a party of principle and further demonstrated fiscal restraint.

Simple and straightforward conservatism from the beginning would have said:
1. We are in economic difficult times and it is time for fiscal restraint.
2. The Federal government will no longer fund projects that are clearly of local interest and benefit.
3. The initial application of this policy is that we will not be providing funding for local celebrations, parades [gay or sad], fireworks, rodeos, statues, parks, trails, and local beautification. All of these are examples of strictly local concerns where local analysis of costs and benefits should prevail. Instead of relying on other people's money they must learn to live within their own means.

Rather than a such a straight forward and relatively easy to administer policy the Federal government has spent a year of bureaucrats time craftily "restructuring the program" to define away the eligibility of the Toronto Gay Pride parade.

So now they stew in their own ill conceived past "policy" if the practice warrants the term. The original $400,000 grant which went to Gay Pride last year stirred up a storm of protest from a mixed bag of genuine fiscal conservatives, Christian fundamentalists, and the homophobic. Now they stir up a storm of protest from those of the alternative persuasions. No win, no win all over again.

The program in question "Marquee Tourism Events Program" had a nice ring to it. In truth it was a "Conservative MP's Hand Out Other Peoples Money in Very Large Cheques to Garner Popular Local Support" program.

When will they ever learn, when will they ever learn?
Taxpayers and voters are not stupid. They would have accepted without question the straightforward conservative policy.
Reference:
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=3011070

Reply from Randy Kamp MP
Subject:
RE: losing faith
Date:
Thu, 3 Jun 2010 11:51:55 -0400
From:


Dan,

Thank you for your e-mail and for taking the time to write to me.

The gay pride parade to which you refer was funded in year one of a two-year stimulus program: Marquee Tourism Events Program (MTEP). The goal of MTEP is to provide a much-needed boost to the tourism industry which faced severe challenges at the beginning of the global recession.

Most of the funding in the first year went to the largest cities and the attempt was to spread out the year two funding to other regions and smaller cities. A number of events funded in year one did not receive funding this year, but 19 new beneficiaries did.

Regards,

Randy

Randy Kamp, M.P.
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission



-

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

GIVING GREEK GIFTS



Reading the press these days it is easy to have the impression that the European Union and the IMF are about to bail out the Greek government.

While that is certainly the surface appearance, there is more than meets the eye. The press has so far failed to take us beyond the surface.

The bail out is also a rescue for the investors in bonds issued by the Greek Government.

This is déjà vu all over again.

The world economy is still recovering from the "housing debt crisis". Better to have called that the "inept investment decisions relating to purchase of US mortgage backed securities"

Now we have the "inept investment decisions relating to purchase of Greek government debt".

Holders of Greek government bonds now realize they made bad investment decisions.
There are few clues as to who these holders are. Here is one
"Société Générale on Wednesday revealed for the first time a €3bn ($3.9bn) exposure to Greek government bonds as it announced a better-than-expected first-quarter net profit of €1.06bn."
[http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5b6fce12-580c-11df-9eaf-00144feab49a.html]

If the EU and the IMF supply money to the Greek government to keep it afloat they may simply be serving to minimize investment losses in the European banking sector

A possible rationale is that the European banking sector is still recovering from the credit crunch that spread outward from the US housing market debacle. This may justify the move but does not justify being less than forthright and transparent as to the winners and losers in this sad tale.

Once again the rating agencies are closing barn doors too late.
"LISBON, Portugal — Portugal, striving to avoid becoming the next victim of Europe's debt crisis, was put on standby for a credit rating downgrade on Wednesday even as the government managed to raise some euro500 million ($654 million) on the bond markets.
Moody's Investor Services warned it may downgrade Portugal's Aa2 debt rating in the next three months, a week after its rival Standard & Poor's cut its rating and stoked market concerns that the crisis in Greece was spreading to other financially troubled countries in the eurozone."
[http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gjzuiaROshdC5ZOt291UdymOx4bQD9FGOCK80].

In short, the sophisticated investors within the banking industry have made bad investments based on ineptness or laziness. The laziness relates to undue reliance on rating agencies who in turn have been inept or lazy.

The end result is that inept governments, issued debt to inept professional investors who were relying in part on inept rating agencies and now their losses will be significantly reduced by money supplied by the EU and the IMFto Greece. That money of course is not EU or IMF money, it is other peoples money and the other people are the taxpayers in Europe and around the world who pay taxes to support the EU and the IMF.

Saturday, May 1, 2010


GOVERNOR GENERAL OF CANADA

My Dear Sovereign Queen,

This may come a busy time for you, what with the election in the offing and the exciting entertainment of the political debates. I too am embroiled in important busyness; the opposition wants pieces of paper about past events in some out of the way country; they are hot on the trail of the abortion debate, I recently dismissed a member of my caucus, and our parliament buildings are badly in need of repair.

These are distractions from important matters such as the state of our economy, and that brings me to the purpose of this e-mail. As an aside, I hope you are not offended by e-mails. It is true they lack the class of embossed stationary but they are efficient and they save on postage. We are looking for ways to reduce our budget deficit and the contract with your representative in Canada expires soon.

Your gentle and benevolent oversight of Canada has been much appreciated. It can probably continue via U tube and other modern conveniences for keeping an eye on what is going on in the world. We are almost 150 years old and are at a stage of economic and social development where we can stand on our own, unassisted.

My suggestion is that if you have a strong desire to have an on site representative, that you make the appointment and take care of all of the arrangements including salaries etc. etc.
I am sure that we could work out a satisfactory rental arrangement if you wished to have your representative continue to reside in and work from Rideau Hall.

I assure you that information appearing in wikipedia has had no bearing on my present emphasis on economizing. It is true that an irate taxpayer wrote to me recently in a flap about US paying for YOUR representative when you are so wealthy. The taxpayer even provided a quote from wikipedia:
"Both the Crown Estate and the Crown Land of Canada (comprising 89%[69] of Canada's area) are owned by the Sovereign in trust for the nation, and cannot be sold or owned by Elizabeth in a private capacity."

What is disturbing about the quote is that if I add in the % of Canada claimed by our first nations peoples we seem to be vastly over owned. Just goes to show you that it is wise to be somewhat hesitant in viewing Wikipedia as more reliable than our trusted advisors.

Naturally you will have some concern with maintaining the cohesion of the 16 nation Commonwealth. A facebook page might solve the problem, but a facebook page with only 16 friends would probably rank as lacking in friends. If the various Commonwealth countries required all their civil servants to become your friends that would surely vault you to the all time record for friends but of course would be entirely unwieldy. You might consider some to be unsavory characters. In my view the mid ground would be to just have MP's, Senators and Chief Justices as friends, although that still would not rule out unsavory characters.

I look forward to your reply, e-mail is OK, and in the meantime I have suspended all speculation regarding a possible new governor general.

With warm regards and curtsies,
Steve

Friday, April 16, 2010

THE GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE


THE GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE
Here is how I am structuring my views.

1. Is global warming factually established?

Probably. The issue is whether the warming observed is outside the boundaries of what has been observed in the past in the unending cycle of climate shifts.
World temperatures do change. Saskatchewan was once tropical, then a glacier, and now it is just dry.
I have been suspicious of the science since the main researchers have not released their underlying data to enable replication. Replication is essential in science.
The recent hack of e-mails from East Anglia University reveals that some of the researchers would consider deleting data rather than releasing it. That scientist even have that thought flit through their mind is deeply disturbing.
see http://eastangliaemails.com/.
An excellent article in The Economist of March 20 2010, with its clear description of the theory and the measurement has now convinced me that measurable climate warming is occurring. http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15719298

2. If it is, is it caused by human activity?

I can believe that human activity has some impact on climate. I can even believe that the belching of cows also has some impact. What I cannot believe is that the farts of dinosaurs caused the glaciers of Saskatchewan to melt. So what did? That remains an open question but both theory and measurement establish that increases in carbon dioxide produce warming and a major source of carbon dioxide is human activity.

3. If it is, what are the upside and downside consequences?

I have not seen any analysis as to whether the displacement of coastal inhabitants and coastal land loss is balanced by increased inhabitable and arable land in the northern hemisphere.

4. If the net is downside what options are available and what is the cost?

It seems all options have a high cost. So decisions should be based on a cost/benefit analysis. See:
http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Default.aspx?ID=1148 for the global warming consensus paper.
An executive summary can be downloaded to .pdf

5. Relative to the net downside costs where does this problem rank in the realm of world problems?

This is the bottom line.

I found the Monk debate which was aired on CBC Ideas useful to my thinking.
"Be it resolved that climate change is mankind's defining crisis, and demands a commensurate response."

George Monbiot and Elizabeth May for the pro side and Bjørn Lomborg and Lord Nigel Lawson for the contrary.
http://www.munkdebates.com/debates/
The discussion forum following is also useful,

A 16 minute video lecture by Bjorn Lomborg can be seen at:
http://www.ted.com/talks/bjorn_lomborg_sets_global_priorities.html
The video is short, clear, and places attempts to deal with climate change, while worthwhile, near the bottom of a clear list of problems to be dealt with.
This too is based on the conclusion of the researchers who participated in the Copenhagen Consensus.
http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Default.aspx?ID=1143 for
The ten challenges examined in Copenhagen Consensus 2008

My conclusion is that reasonably cost effective steps should be taken to reduce global warming but that such efforts should not detract from the more pressing global problems.


Here is the ranking of global problems from the Copenhagen Consensus.
1 Micronutrient supplements for children (vitamin A and zinc) Malnutrition
2 The Doha development agenda Trade
3 Micronutrient fortification (iron and salt iodization) Malnutrition
4 Expanded immunization coverage for children Diseases
5 Biofortification Malnutrition
6 Deworming and other nutrition programs at school Malnutrition and Education
7 Lowering the price of schooling Education
8 Increase and improve girl's schooling Women
9 Community-based nutrition promotion Malnutrition
10 Provide support for women's reproductive role Women
11 Heart attack acute management Diseases
12 Malaria prevention and treatment Diseases
13 Tuberculosis case finding and treatment Diseases
14 R&D in low-carbon energy technologies Global Warming
15 Bio-sand filters for household water treatment Water
[SOURCE:http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Projects/Copenhagen%20Consensus%202008/Outcome.aspx]
Image: http://www.arctic-warming.com/poze/pozaBb.jpg

Sunday, April 11, 2010

AFGHANISTAN IS SUNK COSTS



An earlier blog SUNK COSTS IN BUSINESS AND IN POLITICS [2010.02.16] dealt with the topic of sunk costs . Now, an editorial in The National Post of April 6 clearly reveals that the concept is not well understood even by well informed editorial writers. The key point of the editorial is in the following paragraph.

"While we still have doubts that Afghanistan will ever even partially achieve those goals, Ms. Clinton’s request is a reasonable one. Canadians have tired of war and have paid a heavy price in blood — 141 Canadian soldiers have been lost in that distant land. But certainly, having already come so far and sacrificed so much, Canada can continue to contribute in a demonstrable way to Afghanistan’s security". [Editorial "We can still contribute" . [National Post 2010.04.06
http://network.nationalpost.com/NP/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2010/04/06/national-post-editorial-board-we-can-still-contribute-in-afghanistan.aspx ]

Put simply their analysis says.
1. Canada has "..come so far and sacrificed so much…"
2. There are anticipated future costs "Canada can continue to contribute in a demonstrable way to Afghanistan’s security"
3. Those future costs will not result in any benefit, "we still have doubts that Afghanistan will ever even partially achieve those goals."

Past deaths and past spending are sunk and are entirely irrelevant to the present decision. Point 1 is irrelevant.
We are where we are regardless of how we got there. Part of where we are is what has been learned, if anything.
If the prognosis is that we will not even partially achieve goals then further sacrifices of lives and resources is unwarranted.

The future costs [point 2] exceed the future benefits [point 3].

Logical decision. Quit while we are behind because we are never going to be ahead.

Friday, April 9, 2010

TAXATION: OF INCOME OR OF CONSUMPTION




I don't like taxes. I often feel strongly that my government is spending too much and unwisely. Yet there is a valid role for government and therefore for taxes to pay for that valid role. In our Province of British Columbia there is now a vigorous debate regarding the increasing use of a consumption or sales tax.

There are two broad targets of taxation. Tax income i.e. productivity, or tax consumption.

My view is that an income tax tends to inhibit productive activities. I can reduce my income tax by working less. From a broad social perspective this is unwise. An additional factor is that income taxation is an incredibly complex mechanism that absorbs an inordinate amount of time and resources.

A consumption tax tends to inhibit consumption. While much of consumption is on necessities, our modern society has drifted to consumption of non essentials. I can reduce my consumption tax by reducing my consumption and I will focus on the non essentials when doing so. The collection of consumption taxes is relatively straight forward when compared with the income tax.

Yes we must be concerned with those on very low income who can barely pay for necessities. This is best done by a generous social support network.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

HOUSE FOR SALE 32502 BEST AVE MISSION BC

This is a marketing test of the extent to which blog posts are indexed by search engines such as google.
AND
I really do have a house for sale. One with spectacular 360 degree views over the Fraser Valley of British Columbia.

Full details click on:

http://picasaweb.google.ca/danatmission/4WAYVIEW4WAYPRIVACYMission02?authkey=Gv1sRgCNa32PCB7aSqEA#

Once on the site click on "slide show".

The exercise is also part of a test of how well the MLS Multiple Listing Service serves the buyers and sellers of homes. The MLS system is now being challenged by the Canadian Competition Bureau.

Sunday, April 4, 2010

MY STANCE ON GAMBLING


MY STANCE ON GAMBLING

For years I have been ambivalent about gambling. My libertarian inclination is that individuals should be free to spend their money as they wish, even if I think it is foolishly. My humanitarian inclination is that society has some responsibility to inhibit dangerous or foolish acts.

Locally the provincial government is allowing, even encouraging, an expansion in casino gambling and is directly operating its own lottery system. Is there morality involved? If so, then where do I stand?

I do not believe it to be a moral issue. Gambling does not directly harm anyone.

Should gambling of all forms be free of all government restraint and regulation?
I think not.

Some politicians and social activists describe gambling, and in particular casino gambling as a "tax on the poor". I do not think that conveys an accurate view although a "tax on the foolish" is closer. If the poor gamble more than the rich it is because, in general, they are less educated. As for foolishness; is it more foolish to risk your money gambling or risk you life in dangerous adventures or sports?

I believe government should not be directly involved in gambling. It is an activity that warrants a degree of regulation. The conflict of interest is unacceptable if the government both operates and regulates.

So let gamblers gamble and the dens of such activity operate.

As for the regulatory role of government I do not advocate a laissez faire stance. There is a role for government and that is enforcing transparency and honesty in advertising. I give some specific examples.

Just as the government enforces uniform measures of weight, distance, and temperature; a proper role is to specify a uniform measures of gambling risk. I advocate the measure "expected value". Expected value is the average payoff from an identified game of chance.

Gambles on a fair coin have an expected value of 1. Betting $10 consistently over time would leave the gambler walking away with $10.

A gamble with odds of winning of 5 in 100 would have an expected value of .05. A bet of $100 at those odds done consistently over time would leave the gambler walking away with $5.

A fair government regulation would require that each game have a clear posting of expected value. A $5 slot machine would post, for example, "this $5 slot machine pays out expected value $3".

A casino may be required to have a large marquee posting the weighted average expected value of the various games weighted by the present level of play. "This casino has an expected value of $60 for each $100 spent".

It is also appropriate for the government to be involved in educational activities that benefit its citizens. Just as the government promotes knowledge of nutrition and health it can promote financial literacy.

If individuals knowingly walk into a casino to spend $100 and knowingly walk out with $60 on average they may still prefer the $40 net cost to attending 3 movies or any other $40 entertainment or excitement.

The next big question is whether the government should levy special taxes on gambling establishments. My view is that there should be a business tax designed to cover all costs of enforcing regulations and promoting financial and expected value literacy. The government should not profit directly from the profit of the gambling establishment beyond the normal income tax. To receive a direct cut of the action creates a conflict of interest.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

LIFE, AFTER LIFE OR JUST LIFE


LIFE, AFTER LIFE OR JUST LIFE

Easter is here, and columnists often write about its significance. One such is
http://network.nationalpost.com/NP/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2010/04/01/monsignor-frederick-m-dolan-betting-on-the-afterlife.aspx. He writes.

"That is the fundamental “Easter question” for Christians. Do they or do they not believe in life after death? It either does or does not exist. Both positions ultimately require an act of faith; after all, in this life it is impossible to “break on through to the other side,” to use the memorable phrase of The Doors’ Jim Morrison. Life and death come down to weighing our two options and hedging our bets, since it just might be true that death is only the entry point to an unending existence in the afterlife."

While he suggests this to be THE question for Christians I suggest that were it applicable it would be applicable to all. For me, the question he poses simply does not matter.

I suggest that a more fundamental question is whether or not how we live our lives here, has any bearing on what happens after death.

If it does, then best we know the rules of the game and exactly how our present life, beliefs, words, affirmations, or faith impacts on what happens after death. Is this a simple 2 possible outcome such as hell or heaven, or is there some gradation, and if so who does the judging of how we played the game of life and the portion of the rewards or punishments to be meted out.

If it does not, and our lives have no bearing on what happens after death, then best we learn to live a fulsome life. And for that, the ultimate responsibility rests with each individual to adopt a mode of life and being that does just that for them. If I do not assume the responsibility for this, then let me specify to whom have I abdicated the responsibility.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

GUEST COMMENT FREE SPEECH

The March 25 blog "Free Speech and Politeness", in substantially the same content, was posted to the forum of the Simon Fraser University Retiree Association, of which I am a member. An early and thoughtful response was posted there and with the permission of the author it is copied below. It would normally appear as a comment to the original blog but blogspot comments are limited to 4,000 characters. The response follows and the format my be unusual as it was received by e-mail.

"Thanks for bringing Ozlem Sensoy's opinion piece in the Vancouver Sun to our
attention. I was a member of the Faculty of Education before I retired, so
I thought I would take up your invitation to comment on her opinion piece.

"First, her claim that Coulter's speech acts are not individual acts, but are
necessarily part of what Prof. Sensoy claims to be a "system of privilege"
places her argument into a framework that I cannot accept. Basically Prof.
Sensoy is saying that we do not act as individuals when we speak, but merely
as cogs in a system. In other words, it is irrelevant if I personally do
not use so-called hate language, for whenever I speak, because I am a white
female person of European ancestry, I necessarily am privileged and my talk
must always be viewed as the talk of a privileged class.

"Whenever someone claims that there are really no individuals, but only
members of classes, I can only assume that they have accepted a Marxist
philosophy.

"Prof. Sensoy also claims that the power relationships upon which these class
distinctions are based do not change--"these relationships do not flip back
and forth." From her perspective then, our society is in a state of
permanent stasis. Factually, this is obviously a false claim. Not only do
(a) people move from one social class to another, but also (b) social
classes change in their number and composition. Examples: (a) I happen to
have originated in a social class where nobody in my immediate or extended
family had ever graduated from high school. I not only graduated from high
school, but went on to university and even ended up with a Ph.D. Clearly I
belong to a different social class than my parents did. (b) Back in the
1970s when I did educational consulting with native people on the prairies,
only 4% completed high school. Today, over 60% of native people complete
high school and there is now also a significant percentage who acquire
university degrees. Clearly, what used to be an underclass of people who
could be defined by locale (rural) and ethnicity (native) have changed; a
significant percentage of native people are now members of a rural working
or middle class that did not exist before. So I think these kinds of
changes in Canada argue against accepting Prof. Sensoy's Marxist framework
of analysis.

"Second, moving away from Marxism to a consideration of language, Prof.
Sensoy's analysis of language is uninformed. Referring to the author (James
Frey) of an autobiography that was initially widely touted as wonderful and
then denounced as a pack of lies by the same reviewers, Prof. Sensoy asks,
why did the reviewers denounce the work as a lie, rather than saying nothing
and allowing it to exist as an exemplar of free speech. I can only say that
it is unfortunate that an SFU professor does not know the difference between
biography and fiction, between claiming something is historically factual
versus producing a novel. We ask the historian who labels a work
"autobiographical" to be true to the facts; the novelist creating a work of
art is under no such constraint. An historian is distinguished from a
novelist.

"Third, Prof. Sensoy points out that we live with various types of speech
limitations every day. She claims that one of these includes some people
forcing others to shut up--"You can't just say whatever the hell you want."

"I think Prof. Sensoy here is extending the elementary school classroom to
the entire country. While it is appropriate for a teacher in a classroom to
limit the speech of children--they should not swear at one another, call one
another names, etc.--the world outside the classroom contains people who
have grown up. Some grownups present arguments, produce satire, challenge
mundane thinking, challenge political correctness. In a democracy, there is
no Big Teacher supervising the dialogues of grownups. The closest analogue
in the past to Ann Coulter is the French satirist Voltaire--his wit was
sharp, piercing, acerbic, unpleasant, and made others uncomfortable. Today
Voltaire's work belongs to the canon of great French literature precisely
because of these characteristics that disturbed so many in his time.

"Should the university lecture hall be subject to the same constraints as the
elementary school classroom? Well, the university is no longer either in
law or in fact acting as a parent (no longer in loco parentis). >From our
students we can and should expect grownup behavior. That normally has meant
exhibiting what you, Dan, have called polite behavior. And you have provided
a range of choices as to what a grownup does. I think you've given us a
good list.

"Finally, Prof. Sensoy's justifications for preventing certain persons from
speaking to university students demonstrate a problem that has arisen in
educational circles. Political correctness has become an area of expertise
for a large group of academics in Faculties of Education. Certain groups
have been singled out as recipients of special, even reverent, treatment.
These academics are the specialists who tell us who we are to revere, and
how we are to revere these special groups. PUBLIC POLICY HAS BECOME THE
CAPTIVE OF THIS ACADEMIC ELITE. This elite now tells us who can speak in
public and who cannot speak. The students who carried sticks and threatened
violence at the University of Ottawa "embody the spirit of student activism"
and, according to Prof. Sensoy are to be thanked.

"This politically correct elite is allied with government. This elite get
grants to support their publications. This elite provides input to the
provincial educational system. This elite trains the teachers who serve in
the provincial educational system. This elite explicitly pushes their
particular notion of "social justice" in the provincial educational system.

"Now this elite wishes to silence anyone who wishes to present ideas that the
elite does not like. A few years ago, who would have thought that the
greatest danger to free speech and free thought in our society would be
housed in the university?

"Sincerely,
Gloria Sampson, Retired Prof., Faculty of Education"

Thursday, March 25, 2010

FREE SPEECH AND POLITENESS

March 21, 2010

FREE SPEECH AND POLITENESS

Today's Vancouver Sun devoted 20 column inches to an opinion piece:
"Ann Coulter and free speech? Hardly"
By Ozlem Sensoy, of SFU
http://www.vancouversun.com/entertainment/Coulter+free+speech+Hardly/2724188/story.html
This is 20 column inches of opinion, said to be on the topic of free speech.

I have previously blogged my views on free speech. "Free speech and incitement to hate"
Friday, April 10, 2009
http://dlmblogmissn.blogspot.com/2009_04_01_archive.html

When someone identifies themselves with a university affiliation I like to think they have a justifiable pride in their subject expertise. In my view I should not identify myself as a university professor in writings outside my field of expertise. Sensoy is with the Faculty of Education at SFU. I accept that he has a reasonable level of expertise on students and their behavior and perhaps even on free speech. Interesting that in the hard copy his university affiliation appears but it does not appear in the on line.

To say that I was merely disappointed at the lack of comprehensible substance in the Sensoy article is to stretch my politeness to the limit.

Here I wish to avoid the subject of free speech and focus simply on politeness.
I feel I learned some things even before kindergarten and one of them was politeness, and in particular politeness in the presence of guests.

I would like to think that University students have acquired some of that as they climb the educational ladder to university admission. Not that it is a requirement, more an expectation.
Some university students at the U of Ottawa seem to have missed out on it and I fear even some faculty members have also.

When a guest has been invited to give a talk or lecture at a University I believe they should be treated politely.

If you don't like their views, don't go.

If you go, don't heckle. If Q & A is invited, participate politely. Consider going even if you have strong opposing preconceptions, it is a test of why you are attending university.

If you have alternative views, there are many available options:

Sponsor a debate with opposing views, [and expect no heckling and set the rules such as Q&A after all it is your dime and you are entitled to set the rules for your meeting.]

Sponsor a lecture on the opposing view [and expect politeness from those with opposite views]

Write letters to editor [ and expect responses]

Participate in forums such as this [ and expect responses]

Start a blog or participate in comments

Start/participate in a facebook page.

Whatever you do, do not mindlessly impede others from listening to what they want to listen to and are, out of politeness, entitled to.

It would be a bonus if someone from the Education Faculty would enlighten us as to what is now considered the norm that is to be expected from students in an educational institution.

PS. Politeness dictates I copy this to Ozlem Sensoy, he did not give his e-mail so that is not possible.

One last ironic twist. The illustration here comes from a book:
BE POLITE AND KIND
by Cheri J. Meiners, M.Ed. [emphasis added]

When children are kind, courteous, and
respectful, people enjoy being around them and reciprocate with the same behavior. This book helps kids understand the importance of showing politeness, speaking kindly, using basic courtesies
(“please,” “thank you,” “excuse me”), and respecting the feelings of others. Scenarios and role-play activities help adults reinforce the book’s lessons. 40 pp., color illust., S/C, 9" x 9". Ages 4–8.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

TAXES AND GOVERNMENT


Read the following press statements carefully
1. "The government is spending more that a quarter of a billion dollar on the B.C. homeowners grant.
2. " And then the government hands out another $733 million in tax relief, much of it to homeowners.
3. "The biggest oil companies in Canada are projected to receive more in corporate tax cuts than what the government plans to spend on green initiatives'

Now please think carefully about the mental image and conclusions you reach.
Perhaps it is somewhat along one of the following lines.
- The government is spending too much.
- The government is spending too much on bad ideas
- The government is spending money on homeowners
- The government is spending too much money on oil companies

All of the quotes are from the press with minor modifications to protect the guilty.

I strongly suspect that very few are aware of the subtle brain washing that is going on.

There are two broad views of government. Here greatly simplified.
Society should be the focal point of our goals.
Individuals should be the focal point of our goals.

Note that in all 3 instances the press adopts the view that the government is entitled to all, most, or a great deal of wealth and that from that wealth they dole out largess. Is this bias deliberate? Has the bias impacted your view? Have you succumbed to brainwashing.

An alternative view is that in all 3 instances the government is simply not taking away as much.

A press with the alternative bias that the government is not entitle to all, most or a great deal would say.
1a The government has reduced its take from homeowners.
2a The government has reduced its tax grab, much of it from homeowners.
3a The large oil companies are at last granted relief from high taxation.

A relatively neutral press would simply report facts.
1b The home owner grant was increased.
2b Taxes were reduced in a number of areas and the home owner grant was increased.
3b Tax rates on the largest oil companies were reduced.

Moral of the story, be alert for subtle bias in newspaper reports. I am told TV news is even worse.

Monday, March 8, 2010

NARROW OR WIDE JUDICIAL DECISION


In June 1985, an Air India flight from Canada was destroyed by a bomb.
Here it is March 2010, 25 years later and the legal mess continues with the trial of Ajaib Singh Bagri on a charge of perjury.

In 2000, fifteen years after the bombing, Ripudaman Singh Malik and Ajaib Singh Bagri, were arrested and charged with the bombing. Their 16 month trial in 2003-2004 required the construction of a special purpose high-security courtroom at a cost of some C$7.2 million.

They were tried by a judge alone and in March of 2005, Justice Ian Josephson acquitted them.

Two conclusions were possible.
1. Establishment of culpability on the basis of "beyond reasonable doubt".
2. Establishment of culpability on the basis of "balance of probabilities".

The learned judge gave his decision on the first of these. His conclusion reflected his assessment of reasonable doubt and thus their acquittal.

Why did the judge not also add his opinion on the second?

What difference would it make even now 25 years later?
1. A further degree of clarity.
2. The possibility of successful civil actions without the high cost of additional legalities.
3. An increased confidence in our investigative and judicial system.

The aggregate cost of the investigation and prosecution was some $C 130 million.
Our society did not get its money's worth. We were and still are entitled to the judge's view on the second possible conclusion.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

BOOKS TO UNDERSTAND CANADA


BOOKS TO UNDERSTAND CANADA

Sheryl MacKay the hostess on the CBC Radio 1 program North by Northwest, Weekends 6:00 - 9:00 a.m highlighted some Canadian books for visitors to the recent Olympics.
I consider myself a dedicated Canadian and a voracious reader. It is embarrassing to admit that of the 46 listed I have only read 5. Perhaps I have yet to understand Canada.

Source
http://www.cbc.ca/nxnw/
Bulletin Board
Canada Reads Vancouver Book Club - Book List:

The discussion was open to all Canadian books, any genre - what books would you recommend visitors read to understand Canada and Canadians?

Sheryl MacKay's Suggestions:

No Great Mischief - Alastair McLeod
Who Has Seen the Wind - WO Mitchell
Where the Blood Mixes - Kevin Loring
Roughing it in the Bush - Susannah Moodie
Souvenir of Canada (1 or 2) - Douglas Coupland


Jen Sookfong Lee's Suggestions:

The Stone Angel - Margaret Laurence
Dry Lips Oughta Move to Kapuskasing - Tomson Highway
Anne of Green Gables - by L.M. Montgomery
Stilt Jack - John Thompson
Saltwater City: An Illustrated History of the Chinese in Vancouver - Paul Yee
The Journals of Susannah Moodie - Margaret Atwood


Simi Sara's Suggestions:

Good To a Fault - Marina Endicott
The Jade Peony - Wayson Choy
Nikolski - Nicholas Dickner
Monkey Beach - Eden Robinson
Galore - Michael Crummey
The Retreat - David Bergen


The Audience Suggestions:

Consumption - Kevin Patterson
A Fair Country: Telling Truths About Canada - John Ralston Saul
The Diviners - Margaret Laurence
Two Solitudes - Hugh MacLennan
As for Me and My House - Sinclair Ross
Food that Schmecks - Edna Staebler
Why We Act Like Canadians - Pierre Berton
Chokecherry - Norma Hawkins
Through Black Spruce - Joseph Boyden
Beyond Forget: Rediscovery the Prairies - Mark Abley
The Cure for Death by Lightning - Gail Anderson-Dargatz
jPod - Douglas Coupland
Simple Recipes - Madeleine Thien
The Reckoning of Boston Jim - Claire Mulligan
Obasan - Joy Kogawa
Stanley Park - Timothy Taylor
Mister Got to Go: The Cat that Wouldn't Leave - Lois Simmie & Cynthia Nugent
Awake and Dreaming - Kit Pearson
To All Appearances A Lady - Marilyn Bowering
Stubby Amberchuk and the Holy Grail - Anne Cameron
Where the Blue Grama Grows - Doris Bircham
The Bishop's Man - Linden MacIntyre
The Birth House - Ami McKay
October Ferry to Gabriola - Malcolm Lowry
Ruffles on My Longjohns - Isabel Edwards
Midnight at the Dragon Caf� - Judy Fong Bates
A Curve of Time - M. Wylie Blanchet
By Grand Central Station I Sat Down and Wept - Elizabeth Smart
Visiting Hours - Shane Koyczan
The End of East - Jen Sookfong Lee

Friday, March 5, 2010

MEDALS AND OSCARS

The winter Olympics have ended in Vancouver. 86 medal events equals minimum of 258 medals and more considering team events. This month it is Oscars in Los Angeles with 96 Oscar categories.

What this world needs is to supersize: the Olympics of Politics. With 203 sovereign states, 20 top political positions, 3 medals per position gives a grand total of 12,180 medals. Now that would be truly Olympian.




An Olympian organization would be required and who better than the United Nations? As for judges the UN could easily establish a Polympian Secretariat. Naturally the UNPS would require a representative from each of the 203 sovereign states. Voting would be democratic with one vote per representative on each question.

The headquarters could be rotated among the 203 countries at 10-year intervals to keep the 203 countries interested for at least 2,030 years. Attracting a television audience and sponsors might both prove difficult. With appropriate arm twisting from the UN, the 203 sovereign states, and an uncountable number of NGO's such problems could probably be overcome.

Please do not leak this blog to the UN. They just might take it seriously.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Toyota, Toyoda, and Political Correctness


The US congress always ready for instant theatre called Akio Toyoda to testify before a House committee. They also heard testimony from Rhonda Smith, whose tale of a runaway Toyota included a frantic cell phone call to her husband and the claim that Jesus took the wheel and saved the day.

Toyoda was duly apologetic and humble as behooves anyone appearing before such an august body and probably in keeping with the Japanese mode of taking responsibility.

At the risk of blaming the victims someone somewhere must risk approbation by violating political correctness. Here goes.

Listen up folks. Automobiles are powerful and complex machines.
If you drive one, learn the basics.
Just as "head bone connected to the neck bone" as the spiritual goes, in an automobile the engine is not connected to the wheels. It is connected to the transmission, which in turn is connected to the wheels.

If your accelerator locks up and the car speeds up dangerously. Shift into neutral. Disconnect the engine from the transmission. Coast to a safe stop. Then turn off the engine.

It is just as important to know how to operate your automobile as it is to operate your cell phone.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

SUNK COSTS IN BUSINESS AND IN POLITICS



The concept of sunk costs is widely taught particularly in the fields of economics and business. It is put to good use in making rational economic and business decisions. Unfortunately it is seldom taught or employed in the fields of politics, and seldom used by journalistic pundits and the public in general.

Sunk costs are an element in decision making at the margin. At the beginning of any project there are only estimated costs and estimated benefits. Often the benefits do not emerge until most or all of the actual costs have been incurred. At various times during a project a re-evaluation is often required in deciding whether the project should be continued or abandoned. This evaluation is usually triggered by high costs, cost overruns, or re-estimates of the benefits. One argument frequently heard in such evaluations is "why throw good money after bad?"

During such evaluations the only relevant costs are the additional costs yet to be incurred which will not be incurred if the project is discontinued. All the past costs are gone, sunk, and irrelevant. Further, the only relevant benefits are the estimated additional benefits yet to come if the project is continued. Benefits already received are counted only as a base in determining how much more benefits can be expected.

Viewing costs and benefits in this way is not always easy as sunk costs get in the way of clear thinking. Additionally the relevant costs and benefits are always estimates of the future and should be viewed in probabilistic terms rather than ignore the uncertainties.

Here is an example from the Afghanistan situation of a political attempt to depicts past sunk costs as relevant.
Abdullah Abdullah, Afghanistan's main opposition leader is quoted as follows.
"The sacrifices you [Canadians] have made here, and all your [Canadian] taxpayers' money. What for? You will have to ask that,"
"You have more than a right to stay firm in that," Mr. Abdullah said. "Not just for the sake of any Afghan persons or an Afghan movement, but for the sake of the sacrifices you have made here. You are not in the business of betraying your own people. In that sense, it is an obligation."

Those sacrifices already made are a sunk cost. They are irrelevant to any decision that must be made now. A jaded politician contemplating the reaction of constituents at the very end of a project, where an evaluation will inevitably attempt to add up all costs and all benefits, is likely to shift footing and be thinking in terms of his political costs and benefits rather than those of the project per se.

The evaluation in total at the end of a project is valid as a learning exercise, particularly in learning to make better estimates in the future and in detecting areas for improvements in operational efficiency. It is not valid in evaluating the decisions made along the way with respect to continuation or abandonment of the project.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

THE CASE OF THE ONE DOOR JUDGE

The story
Edmonton Journal February 11, 2010
"A judge has ordered a mistrial in a sexual assault case after a Crown prosecutor locked a courtroom door while the teenage complainant was testifying.
….
"Court of Queen's Bench Justice Vital Ouellette ruled the accused's right to a public hearing was breached and that declaring a mistrial was the only appropriate remedy.
Arguing for the Crown, Jim Stewart said that locking one of two doors was to prevent people from entering in clear view of the complainant, who was testifying behind a screen.
Crown prosecutors must now decide if they will try the case again."
Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Locked+courtroom+door+leads+mistrial+Edmonton+assault+case/2548458/story.html#ixzz0fIbFc5Yp

Comments on the story.
It is stories like this that make it easy to believe that the legal establishment has an distinct inclination to act in ways that increase the employment of lawyers and judges.
I fully expect the crown will decide to try the case again, the judge will decide to hear the case again and nothing additional will have been accomplished.

As for the "only appropriate remedy". perhaps they could have just continued with the trial with one door available. I strongly believe that there exist now and always have existed courtrooms with only one door.

Monday, February 8, 2010

The Economist of Jan. 30 has an interesting special report "A world of Connections: A special report on social networking". Very interesting on the various ways folks can find to communicate. Blogspot is a good example as it has the option of being open to comments to anyone-- as is this site.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

WHAT IS HARPER COOKING UP?

My friend, call him Bill, is no friend of Stephen Harper so I was not much surprised at the length and vehemence of his recent rant about Harper participating in a perogation. I know that Harper is somewhat reluctant to participate in celebrations of any kind but that if he thinks it will advance his cause he will put up with a lot.

Bill was thoroughly into his analysis talking about Harper always cooking up a storm and running his kitchen with the discipline of a Michelin level chef with a class of novices. Yes he had managed to keep his cabinet whistle clean but of course that was absolutely necessary to avoid bad odors. Undoubtedly some of his underlings are unhappy with his authoritarian ways but too many cooks spoil the broth and you can't even make an omelet without breaking eggs. He is even reputed to have told some of them that if they can't take the heat then get out of the kitchen.

Bill gradually wound himself down muttering that Harper would win no prizes with this batch, and that he would probably just continue with his peroging at least until the Olympics were over.
As for the perogies, no matter how he butters them they won't win the west.

The folks in Edmonton are good judges of perogies. If Harper won they would complain that once again the powers in Ottawa were stealing a western treasure. In this case it would not be a recipe for rebellion but a rebellion for recipes.

He concluded that there is no way that Harper could produce a win even is he was using his Ukrainian contacts for advice on how to go about making the right motions.

By this time I was certainly feeling puzzled. But was I puzzled about Bill's rant or about Harper's alleged participation in a cook off? Whatever it was, it was a strange mixture.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

WORTHLESS WORDS #1 "I Had no choice…."



When I see that phrase I immediately distrust the person or organization.

Are they trying to absolve themselves of responsibility?

Are they truly unaware of the options that always exist?

It is my belief that for any action that I take, there are always alternatives.
My view is that actions involve a choice and that my choice depends on my analysis of the pros and cons relative to my values and my objectives. Rather than say I have no choice I should acknowledge that as among the range of options that I am aware of I am choosing this particular one. I may even go further and disclose my rationale.

Perhaps there are some actions that are so instinctive, automatic, and swift that there indeed is no choice. A child darts in front of my car and I slam on the brakes. Perhaps there was an option to swerve sharply. Perhaps my instinctive reaction can be regarded as a choice.

In most cases however it is clear that there was a choice and a clear reluctance to acknowledge some of the alternatives.

A factory is shut down because management claims it had no choice. It could have chosen to operate even if at a loss.

A union calls a strike claiming it had no choice. It could have chosen to continue working.

A government imposes additional taxes because it had no choice. It could have chosen to operate in a manner that increases its deficit.

The most recent to come to my attention was voiced by attorney Steve Osburn explaining why his client Mr. Roeder killed Dr. Tiller. "He killed Dr. Tiller because that was the only way to save the lives of the unborn. These were honestly held beliefs and he had no choice". [National Post 2010-01-29]

More correctly Roeder chose to act on that particular belief rather than not act on it or to change his belief.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

UNANTICIPATED CONSEQUENCES: BURKA BAN



The French parliament has received a parliamentary report recommending a ban on the burka. The veil [hijab] is already banned in schools. The ban on the burka [head, face, and body covering] will include at schools, government offices, hospitals, and public transport. While the ban will not include streets or shops the inclusion of public transport, when considered together with the widespread use of buses and of metros in cities, amounts to a virtual ban.



As with many government initiatives it is likely to have unanticipated consequences.
With the right motorcycle outfit and dark visor the clothing police can be stymied.
Will such outfits become fashionable in Paris?

Sunday, January 24, 2010

BUZZ FOR CREATIVE PUBLIC OWNERSHIP



Buzz Hargrove is now retired from his role in life as President of the Canadian Auto Workers. Now his thinking is exposed in his book Laying it on the Line and in the National Post 3 part series of excerpts. In the last of that series January 21 he wonders "Whatever happened to using public ownership as a tool to achieve social goals?". He longs for the return of "creative, inspiring leadership to show that public ownership, in certain areas, can play a constructive and efficient role in rescuing the economy".

What happened, is that it emigrated to Venezuela where it now thrives under President Hugo Chavez who is demonstrating that very "creative, inspiring leadership to show that public ownership, in certain areas, can play a constructive and efficient role in rescuing the economy".

The creative use of the tool has just been applied by Chavez to supermarkets following previous inspirations relating to steel (2009), banks and cement (2008), oil and telecommunications and power (2007), and industrial farms (2005). Of such creativity there is no end.

That it plays a role in the economy is certainly true. I doubt that it is constructive and efficient. Rather than rescuing the economy it is more likely that it is creating an economy that will require rescuing. Time to put the World Bank on alert.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT OF STUDENT ACCOMPLISHMENT


THIS BLOG IS LONG AND SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL. THE BLOG COMMENTS ARE IN FULL CAPITALS. THE PORTION IN NORMAL FONT IS THE TEXT OF THE PAMPHLET DISTRIBUTED BY THE TEACHERS UNION.

THE PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA MANDATES AN ANNUAL TEST OF ACCOMPLISHMENT IN ALL SCHOOLS. THE FOUNDATION SKILLS ASSESSMENT (FSA), TESTS GRADE 4 AND 7 STUDENTS IN READING, WRITING AND MATH.

THE B.C. TEACHERS FEDERATION HAS OBTAINED PERMISSION TO DISTRIBUTE THE FOLLOWING PAMPHLET TO PARENTS THROUGH THE SCHOOL SYSTEM. THE PAMPHLET ITSELF FOLLOWS AND IS IN normal font. MY CRITICAL COMMENTS ARE INSERTED IN CAPITAL LETTERS

THE VERY FACT THAT THE UNION HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO DISTRIBUTE THEIR VIEWS THROUGH THEIR CLASSROOMS WARRANTS ANOTHER BLOG. THIS BLOG IS SIMPLY A CRITIQUE OF THE CONTENT OF THE PAMPHLET.

What Parents Need to Know
What Parents Need to Know British Columbia Teachers’ Federation • www.bctf.ca

The students of our province need more time learning and less time wasted on unnecessary, bureaucratic testing.
GOOD IDEA MORE TIME LEARNING. PERHAPS LONGER SCHOOL DAY [E.G. FRANCE] MORE TEACHING HOURS LESS "PROFESSIONAL TIME".

Foundation Skills Assessment (FSA) What teachers believe: Teachers believe that the purpose of assessment is to support and promote learning. •
SEEMINGLY UNWILLING TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE TERM ASSESSMENT IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH DETERMINING LEVEL OF ACCOMPLISHMENT.

Teachers know that it is important to use a variety of methods to effectively assess student progress and meet student needs. Ongoing classroom assessment allows students to demonstrate what they are learning in a variety of ways and provides information to inform teaching and learning.
THIS IS IN NO WAY COMPROMISED. IT IS IMPROVED BY PROVIDING ONE MORE DATA SET. PARENTS NEED A VARIETY OF MEASURES OF ACCOMPLISHMENT. REPORT CARDS ARE ONE WAY. FSA IS ANOTHER.
TAXPAYERS NEED SOME SIGNAL OF EDUCATION ACCOMPLISHMENT.

• An assessment that provides information to a teacher about what an individual student needs to develop understanding of a subject or topic is different from an assessment of how an education system is performing according to general goals for education.
TEACHERS ARE FREE TO DEVELOP/USE WHATEVER INFORMATION THEY FIND USEFUL IN THEIR PROFESSIONAL WORK. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER THEY CAN BREAK OUT OF THEIR PRESENT MIND SET AND PARTICIPATE CONSTRUCTIVELY IN ASSESSING ACCOMPLISHMENT.

• Large-scale random assessments of student performance could be appropriate in the evaluation of provincially prescribed educational programs. The results then could be used only to inform curriculum development, in-service activities, and learning resource development.
THIS IS TRUE AND I HOPE THE TEACHERS AS PROFESSIONALS WILL PARTICIPATE IN IMPROVING SUCH ASSESSMENTS. HOWEVER IT IS APPROPRIATE THAT PARENTS AND TAXPAYEERS RECEIVE EVALUATION OF ACCOMPLISHEMENT THAT IS INDEPENDENT OF THE TEACHERS WHO PLAY ONE SIGNIFCANT ROLE IN ACCOMPLISHMENT.

What the research says: Research says that it is effective classroom assessment that can help a student learn, not large-scale assessment. This is why researchers have started referring to classroom assessment as “assessment for learning” and large-scale assessment as “assessment of learning.”
RESEARCH DOES NOT TALK OR "SAY". RESEARCH REPORTS. NOTE AGAIN THE UNWILLINGNESS TO FACE UP TO THE ISSUE OF ACCOMPLISHMENT. IS THE FSA A MEASURE OF ACCOMPLISHMENT [ASSESSMENT OF LEARNING]?

Effective assessment for learning can improve student achievement substantially, and that improved classroom assessment helps low achievers the most. (Black and William, 1998, U.K. Assessment Reform Group.)
GOOD CARRY ON WITH THE PROFESSIONAL TASK OF IMPROVING STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT. AND ACCEPT THE IDEA OF MEASURES TO INDEPENDENTLY MEASURE ACCOMPLISHMENT. NOTE HOW THIS REFERENCE IS OF "ASSESSMENT FOR LEARING" WHILE THE FSA IS CONCERNED WITH "ASSESSMENT OF LEARNING"

Research has shown that costly, large-scale testing can have negative effects on student motivation and learning, and that those effects are greatest for low-achieving students, the ones who most need support.
AND FACING THIS "CAN HAVE", WORK PROFESSIONALLY TO DEVELOP IMPROVED METHODS OF MOTIVATING STUDENTS WHEN THEIR ASSESSED ACCOMPLISHMENT IS BELOW WHAT THE TEACHER VIEWS AS THEIR POTENTIAL. EQUALLY IMPORTANT, AND MUCH MORE DIFFICULT, IS TO FIND METHODS TO ASSIST STUDENTS AND PARENTS TO A REALISTIC VIEW OF ASPIRATIONS RELATIVE TO CAPACITY.

Common negative effects of testing include:
• narrowing of instruction and instructional methods.
TRULY PROFESSIONAL TEACHERS TEACH THE CURRICULUM AND DO NOT "TEACH TO TESTS".

• less successful students concluding they are unable to succeed, and therefore reducing effort
BETTER TO TAKE THE VIEW THAT STUDENTS PERFORMING BELOW THEIR POTENTIAL CONCLUDE THAT THEY MUST INCREASE THEIR EFFORT.

• students inappropriately focusing on short-term performance goals: “What’s on the test?” .
WHAT THE STUDENTS "FOCUS" ON IS THEIR CHOICE AND PERHAPS THE CHOICE OF THEIR PARENTS. IDEALLY THE "TEST" IS WELL DESIGNED RELATIVE TO THE CURRICULUM I.E. TO WHAT IS TO BE ACCOMPLISHED.

• students experiencing test anxiety.
WE ALL EXPERIENCE ANXIETY ARISING FROM ANY NUMBER OF SITUATIONS. ASSESSMENTS OF ACCOMPLISHMENT WILL ARISE ALL THROUGH THE EDUCATIONAL AND CAREER PATHS. GET USED TO THIS FACT OF LIFE.

• students, parents, and others inappropriately generalizing test results to overall “value” or “intelligence.”
THIS IS WHERE THE MINISTRY OF EDUCATION, TEACHERS, AND PERHAPS EVEN THE BCTF SHOULD BE MORE PROACTIVE AND PROVIDE CONSTRUCTIVE INTERPRETATION.
(Wynne Harlen and Ruth Deakin Crick (2002). Review: What is the evidence of the impact of summative assessment and tests on students’ motivation for learning? Presentation, International Conference, Assessment Reform Group, March 5, 2002.)
NOTE CAREFULLY THAT ONCE AGAIN THE IDEAS OF ASSESSMENT AS MEASURES OF ACCOMPLISHMENT IS SUBTLY AVOIDED.

What teachers are concerned about: FSA tests undermine classroom assessment and have a negative impact on student motivation and learning.
NOTE CAREFULLY THAT ONCE AGAIN THE IDEAS OF INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT AS MEASURES OF ACCOMPLISHMENT IS SUBTLY AVOIDED.

Teachers do not simply assess students’ learning so they have marks to put on report cards. The main purpose of classroom assessment is to support student learning, not simply to measure it. Constantly assessing the learning of students in their classroom allows teachers to monitor progress and adjust their teaching accordingly.
NOTE CAREFULLY THAT ONCE AGAIN THE IDEAS OF INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT AS MEASURES OF ACCOMPLISHMENT IS SUBTLY AVOIDED.

The misuse of FSA testing results is leading to narrow and misleading assumptions about how well schools are doing. Under pressure to find improvement, some districts and schools may be eager to report increases that are not statistically significant. Often the increases are a result of practicing FSA- type tests several times a year or simply a result of exempting low-achieving students from the test. The most blatant misuse of FSA results has been the ranking of schools by the Fraser Institute and then reported by the media. Unfortunately, it misrepresents the efforts of teachers and trustees to serve their communities.
IF THE BCTF FEELS THE DATA IS BEING MISINTERPRETED THEN THEY ARE PERFECTLY FREE TO PROVIDE BETTER INTERPRETATIONS. IF "DISTRICTS" AND "SCHOOLS" ACT CONTRARY TO THEIR MANDATE IT INDICATES A LACK OF PROFESSIONALISM. IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE FRASER INSTITUTE HAD A NUMBER OF DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURES AS WELL AS THE TEST SCORES. PERHAPS THE BCTF COULD ACT COOPERATIVELY WITH THE FRASER INSTITUTE TO DEVELOP MULTIVARIATE ANALYSES THAT BETTER CAPTURE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE VARIABLES. AS FOR THE PRESS, IF THEY ARE INSUFFICIENTLY CRITICAL OF WHAT AND HOW THEY CHOOSE TO REPORT THEN IT IS A REFLECTION ON THEIR PROFESSIONALISM.

What teachers are doing:
• Teachers remain opposed to the FSA not only because it interferes with instruction but it is costly and ineffective in improving achievement.
IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW IT "INTERFERES WITH INSTRUCTION". IF IT IS THE TIME REQUIRED TO WRITE THE TEST, THEN THE SCHOOL YEAR COULD BE EXTENDED BY THE TIME REQUIRED. IF IT IS COSTLY THAT IS THE PROBLEM OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING PRIORITIES AND FAIR ENOUGH TO QUESTION THAT. THE ISSUE IS EFFECTIVENESS. DO FSA EXAMS MEASURE ACCOMPLISHMENT?

• Teachers are asking parents to consider requesting principals to withdraw their children, according to ministry guidelines concerning exemptions, from the participation in the Grade 4 and Grade 7 FSA assessments.
IF THIS DOCUMENT IS THE BEST RATIONALE ON OFFER MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST PARENT WILL SEE IT AS A SELF SERVING DOCUMENT DESIGNED TO PREVENT INDEPENDENT MEASURES OF ACCOMPLISHMENT.

• Teachers are urging the BC Ministry of Education to adopt a two-year moratorium on all standardized tests, including the Foundation Skills Assessment.
IF THIS DOCUMENT IS THE BEST RATIONALE ON OFFER MY HUNCH IS THAT THE MINISTRY OF EDUCATION WILL SEE IT AS A SELF-SERVING DOCUMENT DESIGNED TO PREVENT INDEPENDENT MEASURES OF ACCOMPLISHMENT. IN THIS RESPECT IT IS SIMILAR TO THE ACTION OF TEACHERS UNIONS IN THE USA IN THEIR OPPOSITION TO CHARTER SCHOOLS, PAY FOR PERFORMANCE, AND A VOUCHER SYSTEM.

• Teachers are calling on the government to establish a Testing and Assessment Task Force to explore the issues, review the research on student assessment, and make recommendations before the end of the moratorium.
THE TASK FORCE IS PROBABLY WORTHWHILE BUT BETTER TO HAVE IT ONGOING WITH CONTINUATION OF THE FSA SO THAT FSA DATA WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOURCE FOR EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE FSA

• Teachers will continue to use a range of assessment tools in their classrooms to support student learning.
GOOD! I HOPE THEY HAVE BEEN DOING THIS ALL ALONG AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO.

• Teachers are actively speaking out and working with parents and others in the education community to effect positive change by moving to another structure for assessment—a random sample.
STATISTICAL SURVEY METHODS ARE CLEAR ON THIS POINT THE ONLY REASON TO USE SAMPLING IS TO REDUCE COST. A 100% SURVEY PRODUCES MORE RELIABLE DATA. MORE IMPORTANT, PARENTS WANT AN INDEPENDENT MEASURE OF ACCOMPLISHMENT AND SO SHOULD TEACHERS, PRINCIPALS, SCHOOL BOARDS, AND TAXPAYERS.

What you can do:

• Write a letter to the minister of education opposing the FSA. • Encourage parents to consider asking principals to withdraw their children from the FSA assessments, according to ministry guidelines concerning exemptions.
THIS IS IT. I WRITE, BUT IN SUPPORT OF THE FSA.

• Talk to teachers about the range of assessment tools they use to support learning. • Urge your board or PAC to support a two-year moratorium on all standardized tests, including the Foundation Skills Assessment.
ON THIS SCORE I AM LAZY. THIS ANALYSIS HAS TAKEN ENOUGH OF MY TIME.

For further information: www.bctf.ca